SBIR N03 068

TITLE: Term Geo-Political Context Decision Support Tool

TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Information Systems

ACQUISITION PROGRAM:

OBJECTIVE: To produce a standard methodology and decision support tool to support long term context development for force design and force planning efforts.

DESCRIPTION: Long term strategic planning for naval forces demands an evolving geo-political context that produces fiscally and culturally constrained alternative futures. This tool will assist force architecture analysis to be undertaken with consistent and validated predictions of future world geo-political states. The delivered product will be an automated tool that will permit rapid extraction from relevant external databases of economic assessments and prediction of various geo-political sates that may result. The results will form the basis for making future force architecture alternative design decisions.

PHASE I: Formalization, extension and validation of the methodology and design of the decision support tool that accesses external standard databases.

a. Geo-economic performance estimates. A spreadsheet method for projecting US and regional geo-economic performance was developed in 1990 with a 50-year projection. This phase will validate this model by comparing the 1990 projections of input data to actual performance from 1990-2001 and by comparing the output data to the actual global economic performance from 1990 to 2001. The model will be refined as necessary and extended to a more information-oriented economy.

b. Standardization of Geo-Political modeling for the Period 2000-2005. A methodology exists for characterizing state behavior in multiple possible geopolitical contexts. Test this scheme over the period 1980 to 2002 for robustness with particular emphasis on the historical transition from the Cold War to Post Cold War era. Extend the scheme to non-state entities.

c. A methodology exists for projecting intelligence futures using theoretical clever opponent techniques. Examine how well this scheme predicted the second and third world force development trend from 1990 to 2001 and extend the approach to non-state entities and to regional rivals.

PHASE II: Develop an automated decision support tool with automated extraction from relevant external databases.

PHASE III: Prepare a user-friendly package to support future force architecture analyses.

PRIVATE SECTOR COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL: This tool, with appropriate parameter modifications, could be applied to any future world prediction needs.

REFERENCES:

1. O'Brasky, J., Roads to 2015: Force Structures for Four Different Economic Futures, Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division

2. Etzhold et al., Alternative Futures for Strategic Planners, Center for Naval Analyses

3. Jeffers M., Geo-Economic Futures, Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division

KEYWORDS: Economics, politics, force architecture, analysis, strategic planning.

TPOC: John Christian Phone: 202-781-3477 Fax: 202-781-4572 Email: christianje@navsea.navy.mil 2nd TPOC: Steve Sovine Phone: 540-653-1322 Fax: 540-653-7898 Email: soviness@navsea.navy.mil